Yesterday we saw unusual call option activity in Anadarko Petroleum, an independent oil and gas company. The biggest trade of the day was the purchase of 2750 Nov. 80 calls for $0.37 with the stock trading at 69.10. This is a bullish bet that APC will be above 80.37 at Nov. expiration, which will require a 16% move in the next 35 days. Approximately 50% of Anadarko's revenue is derived from their natural gas business, which means the stock is likely to rally along with natural gas. Currently the stock is consolidating at support in the 68-69 area, and this trader believes a breakout will take it above 80. We see Anadarko as a hedged play on natural gas; since its business is split 50-50 between oil and gas, its stock will have less volatility than the price of natural gas but will certainly benefit from a rally. If Anadarko breaks out above 80, the next major resistance level is its 52-week high of 88, which means this call option could potentially return a lot but at just $0.37 it does not require taking much risk.
One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...
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