After the close today Apple will release its much anticipated earnings. We are playing the announcement via the weekly options expiring tomorrow. Our trade it to buy the 635/645/655 call butterfly for $1.00 and also buy the 585/575/565 put butterfly for $0.75. Our net cost and maximum risk in this trade is $1.75, and we can make up to $8.25 if Apple expires at 575 or 645. On average Apple moves 6.3% after earnings, so we designed this trade to profit from another move of that magnitude and chose strikes near levels we believe Apple is likely to end up near. Our experience tells us that even if Apple only gaps up or down about 4% tomorrow morning we are likely to be able to unwind this trade for a small profit. We like the risk/reward profile of this trade see a good chance it is profitable come tomorrow morning.
One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...
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