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Bridgewater is making a huge put buy in the S&P 500 for early 2020, Id like to take a moment and dive into what exactly is going on from a volatility perspective.     Consider this chart comparing the S&P 500 total return (which includes dividends) vs VIX.  Over the last 4 months or so the stock market has gone on to make new highs and the VIX is actually up during that time.  Typically, the VIX will move lower when the S&P 500 moves higher as fear subsides when the market rallies.  Historically, when I have seen this phenomenon occur where both VIX and SPX increase in value at the same time, it has been a warning sign for stocks. I’m not predicting a global financial meltdown, but this did happen leading up to the last recession.     Take a look at the first April to aug in 2007, which is what led up to the top on Aug 15 2007.   The reason being is that the stock market’s torrid pace higher with each pull...
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I think there is a 10% possible move higher in 6 months easily just from low interest rate environment, regardless of fundamentals. Negative interest rates boost for stock prices. $VEU #ExUS https://t.co/HALw22r5kQ

I think there is a 10% possible move higher in 6 months easily just from low interest rate environment, regardless of fundamentals. Negative interest rates boost for stock prices. $VEU #ExUS #VIX pic.twitter.com/HALw22r5kQ — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) November 14, 2019 Source: @BrianStutland November 14, 2019 at 08:30AM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here
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Up 22% YTD, up 0.45% in a month, $RWR moved to an over 10% weighting in our equity ETF model portfolio last month. Home price gains heat up in August, but lag in major markets: S&P Case-Shiller https://t.co/HLvcNEYwXK

Up 22% YTD, up 0.45% in a month, $RWR moved to an over 10% weighting in our equity ETF model portfolio last month. #VIX Home price gains heat up in August, but lag in major markets: S&P Case-Shiller https://t.co/HLvcNEYwXK — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) October 29, 2019 Source: @BrianStutland October 29, 2019 at 08:18AM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here
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Bear vs Bull. Joe and I debate where #stockmarket is going. #crash or #boom? https://t.co/uJrQjDyNSV https://t.co/do7oWCetqH

Bear vs Bull. Joe and I debate where #stockmarket #vix is going. #crash or #boom ? https://t.co/uJrQjDyNSV pic.twitter.com/do7oWCetqH — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) October 15, 2019 Source: @BrianStutland October 14, 2019 at 10:37PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here
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Over $20B changed hands in $/ES futures contracts on that 5 minute flush down around 9am CT today after #ISM release. Probably a reversal flush out IMO. Would like to see close above $2930 in ESZ9 before complete reversal back up.

Over $20B changed hands in $/ES futures contracts on that 5 minute flush down around 9am CT today after #ISM release. Probably a reversal flush out IMO. Would like to see close above $2930 in ESZ9 before complete reversal back up. #VIX — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) October 3, 2019 Source: @BrianStutland October 03, 2019 at 01:13PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here
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