Skip to main content

Using Options to Trade Season Trends

Today shares of Coca-Cola are over 5% higher after the company reported better than expected earnings per share and revenue, plus a 4% increase in sales volume. Additionally Coca-Cola announced that that they had agreed to create a franchise bottling system with five bottling companies. The stock has seen heavy option trading as a result of its big pop, with the biggest trade of the day being the sale of 5000 August 44 calls for $0.58.

By selling this call, the trader believes that the stock will not be above 44.58 come August expiration, and if it is there he is willing to either get short the stock or take profit on his longs. If this was done against stock, it would create a covered call position for the trader. This is a way to play the seasonal “sell in May and go away” trade without actually going away. Instead of selling stock positions outright, you can sell call options against those stocks to create a downside cushion that will help your portfolio outperform if we see the typical season summer weakness reemerge.

If there is a summer sell-off, then defensive consumer stocks like Coca-Cola will likely hold up relatively well. If this stock is at or above 44 at August expiration this trader will have to sell his stock there and book his profits. This would then make a for a clean transition into a higher beta name to play a fall rally.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Morning Update

Yesterday JC Penny reported what some are calling “The Worst Quarter in the History of Retail.” The company reported a quarterly loss of $2.51 per shares and that revenue dropped 24.8%. Revenue at stores open for at least a year fell 31.7% and customer traffic dropped 17% last quarter following a 10% decrease in third quarter. Not surprisingly these dismal numbers spurred option traders to make some large bearish bets on the stock. The biggest was the purchase of 30,000 May 16 puts for $1.57 with the stock at 17.50. This trade will be profitable if JCP is below 14.43, 17.5% lower, by May expiration. One of the biggest concerns investors should have in JC Penny’s cash supply. In November they told investors that they would end the year with $1 billion in cash, but ended up with only $930 million. Wednesday they then told investors that they had delayed $85 million in payments to their suppliers until the early part of the first quarter. This is another red flag that the company is run...