Moments ago we saw a trader buy 51,504 XLV Nov. 42 calls for $0.07 with XLV at 40.40. This is a bullish bet that XLV, the SPDR Health Care Select Sector ETF, will be above 42.07 in 14 days, or 4.1% higher. We think this is actually a bet on the outcome of the election. An Obama victory is likely to benefit healthcare stocks while a Romney victory is likely to benefit the energy sector. Various polls show a wide range of election outcomes, with most showing Obama holding a narrow lead. At the office we like to watch markets like inTrade to see where people are betting their real money. The inTrade market for Obama to win currently implies that he has a 66.3% chance of winning. This trade is risking $360,528 and could potentially make many multiples of that, and shows how some of the smart money is beginning to position themselves for an Obama victory.
The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower. (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007). So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...
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