Moments ago we saw a trader buy 51,504 XLV Nov. 42 calls for $0.07 with XLV at 40.40. This is a bullish bet that XLV, the SPDR Health Care Select Sector ETF, will be above 42.07 in 14 days, or 4.1% higher. We think this is actually a bet on the outcome of the election. An Obama victory is likely to benefit healthcare stocks while a Romney victory is likely to benefit the energy sector. Various polls show a wide range of election outcomes, with most showing Obama holding a narrow lead. At the office we like to watch markets like inTrade to see where people are betting their real money. The inTrade market for Obama to win currently implies that he has a 66.3% chance of winning. This trade is risking $360,528 and could potentially make many multiples of that, and shows how some of the smart money is beginning to position themselves for an Obama victory.
One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...
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