Skip to main content

Unusual Option Activity

On Friday we saw options traders continue to gain long exposure to US financials and emerging markets, all of which are likely to appreciate as a result of QE3, but also noticed traders hedging themselves against the current trend of a weakening US dollar and rising S&P 500.

We saw 101,039 XLF Oct. 17 Calls trade on the ask for $0.12 as the ETF broke out to a new 52-week high. Friday’s put-call ratio in this ETF was 0.124, showing that traders are definitely expecting a continued move to the upside. This trade profits if XLF is above 17.12 at October expiration in 32 days, a 5% move higher from Friday’s close. We also saw 54,087 EEM Oct. 43.5 Calls trade above the ask for $0.744. This trader is betting that EEM will be above 44.244 at October expiration, a 4.5% move higher from Friday’s close.

In contrast to these bullish bets, we saw a trader buy 25,890 IWM Nov. 82 puts at the ask for $1.34 and finance this by selling an equal number of Nov. 78 puts for $0.66. The net cost of this trade is $0.68, and it profits if IWM is below 81.32 at November expiration. The motivation behind this trade is likely protection for a long stock portfolio heading into the election.

Another trader sold 13,161 UUP Oct. 22 calls on the ask at 0.109. UUP, the Powershares US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, has been down for the past four weeks in a row, so this is likely a trader selling a call against a long stock position to reduce positions downside risk.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Morning Update

ECB officials said last night that ECB President Mario Draghi will likely wait to hear Germany’s Constitutional Court’s ruling on the EFSM before publicly unveiling his plans. Many were hoping Draghi would unveil his plan after the ECB’s September 6th meeting, but this is becoming increasingly unlikely. Today Reuters is reporting that Germany is the latest European nation to begin studying the possible impact of a Greek exit from the Euro. This comes ahead of Chancellor Merkel’s meeting with Greece’s Prime Minister today. Merkel has repeatedly said that she would like Greece to remain in the common currency, though clearly someone in Germany believes a Greek exit is possible outcome worth preparing for. This morning US new durable goods orders numbers we released for July, coming in at a gain of 4.2% M/M. Though this was strong than expected, it was primarily driven by strong aircraft sales. Non-defense orders excluding aircraft were down a sharp 3.4% M/M versus a 0.2% decline expecte...

Is the KCJ Foreshadowing a 2008 Repeat?

The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower.  (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007).  So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...