Skip to main content

Morning Update


The latest news out of Athens is the same as it has been for months – Athens will again come up short on funding and require additional capital. Der Spiegel, a German newspaper, is reporting that Greek Prime Minister Samaras is possibly preparing to request an additional 2 years to make €11.5 billion in cost cutting measures when he meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday and French President Fancois Hollande on Saturday.

However, the German ECB representative Jorge Asmussen said yesterday that “he backs the ECB buying periphery debt as a means to prevent the disintegration of the Euro” (ZeroHedge). Likewise Christan Democratic Union lawmakers in Germany said that they support making “small concessions” for Greece as long as they lie within the existing program. These comments appear to mark a change of heart for Germany and could mean more bailouts for Greece in the future.

In the US Warren Buffet slashed his exposure to municipal bonds by terminating CDS agreements on $8.25 billion of debt. Buffet likely closed out the trades for a loss, suggesting he only believes the market will get worse from here. Buffet still holds CDS exposure to roughly $8 billion in municipal bonds which he cannot terminate prematurely.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Morning Update

ECB officials said last night that ECB President Mario Draghi will likely wait to hear Germany’s Constitutional Court’s ruling on the EFSM before publicly unveiling his plans. Many were hoping Draghi would unveil his plan after the ECB’s September 6th meeting, but this is becoming increasingly unlikely. Today Reuters is reporting that Germany is the latest European nation to begin studying the possible impact of a Greek exit from the Euro. This comes ahead of Chancellor Merkel’s meeting with Greece’s Prime Minister today. Merkel has repeatedly said that she would like Greece to remain in the common currency, though clearly someone in Germany believes a Greek exit is possible outcome worth preparing for. This morning US new durable goods orders numbers we released for July, coming in at a gain of 4.2% M/M. Though this was strong than expected, it was primarily driven by strong aircraft sales. Non-defense orders excluding aircraft were down a sharp 3.4% M/M versus a 0.2% decline expecte...

Is the KCJ Foreshadowing a 2008 Repeat?

The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower.  (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007).  So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...

Morning Update

This week a troika of international inspectors will come to Athens. The inspectors, from the European Commissions, the IMF, and the ECB will formally appraise Greece’s delayed overhauls implemented since the June 17 elections. Without gaining approval from the troika Greece risks being cut off from aid, the next round of which is due in September. Domestically the focus of this week’s data will be Friday’s final revision of first quarter GDP. However, next week’s data is likely to rile markets more with both an FOMC meeting and Non-farms payroll report. This morning McDonalds reported second quarter EPS of $1.32, down from $1.35 a year earlier. Revenue grew $0.01 billion to $6.92 billion year over year. This came against consensus EPS estimates of $1.37 on revenue of $6.94, which had already been revised down $0.08 in the preceding weeks. McDonald's U.S. generated comparable sales growth of 3.6% for the quarter, while the European division delivered comparable sales gr...