Looking ahead into the next earnings report, we have seen some mixed messages in the market. On the long side, the sector to think about is clearly tech. I like Tech right now over the other sectors because they have a more heavy cash balance which will help them continue to innovate and consolidate. Some names to think about are MSFT and INTC, being a semiconductor lead rally. AMZN and AAPL are some good ones too. Mixed in with all of this market data is also a rise in volatility levels in the broader market which has the potential for elevated levels of movement over the next 30 days, so you may want to buy put protection in the S&P 500 against a portfolio of tech names.
The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower. (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007). So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...
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