Skip to main content

Some Options to Think About

The following analysis is from Paul Foster:

United Parcel Service-UPS volatility at 49. shares Rally off record lows
United Parcel Service is recently up $2.50 to $40.80. Crude oil futures are recently down .62% to $46.78 according to Bloomberg. UPS call option volume of 9,610 contracts compares to put volume of 3,713 contracts. April option implied volatility is at 49; July is at 47; above its 26-week average of 44, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

DryShips-DRYS call volume and volatility Elevated
DryShips is recently up 49c to $4.57. DRYS call option volume of 22,762 contracts compares to put volume of 6,311 contracts. DRYS April option implied volatility of 183 is above its 26-week average of 142, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Morning Update

ECB officials said last night that ECB President Mario Draghi will likely wait to hear Germany’s Constitutional Court’s ruling on the EFSM before publicly unveiling his plans. Many were hoping Draghi would unveil his plan after the ECB’s September 6th meeting, but this is becoming increasingly unlikely. Today Reuters is reporting that Germany is the latest European nation to begin studying the possible impact of a Greek exit from the Euro. This comes ahead of Chancellor Merkel’s meeting with Greece’s Prime Minister today. Merkel has repeatedly said that she would like Greece to remain in the common currency, though clearly someone in Germany believes a Greek exit is possible outcome worth preparing for. This morning US new durable goods orders numbers we released for July, coming in at a gain of 4.2% M/M. Though this was strong than expected, it was primarily driven by strong aircraft sales. Non-defense orders excluding aircraft were down a sharp 3.4% M/M versus a 0.2% decline expecte...

Is the KCJ Foreshadowing a 2008 Repeat?

The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower.  (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007).  So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...