In the past two days of trading, the VIX has plunged to 64.70 and is down 20 percent since it's record high last Thursday. Clearly, The government bailout of Citigroup and President Elect Obama's announcement of the Chairman of the New York Fed Timothy Geithner to be the next Treasury Secretary has sparked this market rally. Unclear however, is how long all of this will last. The economy still has not healed from bad news in home sales, unemployment, and the bleak situation of financial institutions worldwide. In light of all this, are we starting to climb out of this financial abyss or was this just a bear market rally? Time will most certainly tell.
One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...
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