For the first time since 2004, the Dow Industrial Average hit below 10,000 this morning. News around the world was not much better as the sum of all fears of a downward spiral in the credit crunch has spread globally. In Europe early Monday morning, banks continue to decline especially in Russia. Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, dropped as much as 22 percent. In South America, the Brazilian Stock Market hit a down limit shut off of 10%. In Us markets, many investors are worried not only over Friday's bailout plan specifically that it came a little too late, but also have a lack of trust in the economy. This fear was marked by the VIX level which was up 23% at 55.64 in mid morning trading. We have not seen these unprecedented numbers in the VIX since 1989. Historically, when the VIX has hit a level this high, it has marked a bottom such as in the 1989 level. However, many are speculating whether or not this is the case in this unpredictable market.
The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower. (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007). So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...
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