Quick VIX

Lots of volatility today. In case you missed the sunrise news on @CNBCWEX . Here are my thoughts. #VIX #EAVOL https://t.co/rHJVJdGK9C — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) February 25, 2020 Source: @BrianStutland February 25, 2020 at 02:10PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here

I warned you last week that bonds and VIX were giving us a warning sign.  Here is the next indicator I'm following. The end of 2019 as pictured below looked as if the rates were heading higher, and it looked like the economy was on a solid growth track; however, that has all broken down as investors fear of stocks and a global slowdown has forced people into safe havens, like the 10-year note.   The recent drop in interest rates in the bond market has pushed the indicative dividend yield on the S&P 500 to a 60 bps premium to the 10 year bond yield.  If you factor in that dividends have a lower tax bracket potentially, the yield difference is even greater.  Recently, I discussed how there are many similarities to 2007 , with volatility and bond prices moving together.  Couple some economic data like housing permit growth , PE for stocks , a rally in gold , and household debt all looking like 2007 numbers with volatility and bond...

Great show for you early risers. #bonds and #VIX signaling doom and gloom but doesn’t the panic seem a bit extreme? #EAVOL . I’m still long $VIX futures but I also bought more shares of stock on the close yesterday. I’ll tel you why coming up in 15 minutes on @CNBCWEX — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) February 25, 2020 Source: @BrianStutland February 25, 2020 at 04:34AM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here

In case you missed it, you can now view and subscribe on YouTube @CNBC channel for those early AM @CNBCWEX hits. Why Bonds and #VIX #EAVOL moving together signaling “R” word #recession https://t.co/1zDTP2Npen — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) February 12, 2020 Source: @BrianStutland February 11, 2020 at 10:17PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here

#RT @JoeATiger : RT @BrianStutland : Bond prices and #VIX #EAVOL moving lockstep together is a warning sign for this stock market. Here’s my take on the great show @CNBCWEX with @CourtReagan . https://t.co/y7QYqhC7Rh — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) February 6, 2020 Source: @BrianStutland February 06, 2020 at 02:57PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here

Bond prices and #VIX #EAVOL moving lockstep together is a warning sign for this stock market. Here’s my take on the great show @CNBCWEX with @CourtReagan . https://t.co/y7QYqhC7Rh — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) February 6, 2020 Source: @BrianStutland February 06, 2020 at 02:15PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here

 The Bond Market is Giving us a Warning Sign. I'm sorry to bring this to your attention, but as a close watcher of the VIX for the past 20 years I felt it was my duty bring to light some ominous notes, unfortunately, and see attached of 2 charts comparing TLT (etf that tracks long term treasuries) and the VIX (Cboe Volatility Index). Over the last 6 months or so, there has been a real correlation between treasury prices and fear or volatility.  So, what does this mean for market sentiment? Historically, or at least over the last few years, these two prices move opposite to one another because the stock market becomes more fearful and volatile when liquidity is leaving the system and interest rates are rising.  Meaning, as interest rates rise and bond prices fall in value, the stock market typically becomes a bit more volatile and VIX rises as the liquidity for investing becomes a bit harder. Lately, however, the VIX has gone up and dow...

$/ES broke trendline. Market lining up to move big; #VIX futures holding up. I think above $3270 would show failed sell off attempt & we go back to new highs by end of quarter. Break below $3220 and this chart is mini version of all of 2017-2018 just before December 2018. #EAVOL pic.twitter.com/ReLmIIZiZO — Brian Stutland (@BrianStutland) February 3, 2020 Source: @BrianStutland February 03, 2020 at 02:38PM More info Your Website/Page Anchor Text Here