Skip to main content

Bank Excess Reserves and a 'Rock' Hard Trade

Yesterday on Fast Money Final Call, Brian talked about bank excess reserves being at extremely high levels. Banks are borrowing at a discount window of zero and they are continuing to build excess reserves. Brian thinks banks need to start lending again. Banks just having the reserves sitting there isn't helping the market, he feels once they start lending, the market will rally big time. If the banks continue to collect reserves and not lend them out, we could see a sideways market similar to what Japan experienced. The banks have almost a trillion dollars sitting in excess reserves, they are taking it as free money and keeping long term rates low. They must start lending again. Also, we have saw a huge move yesterday due to great earnings and a lot of company's raising there outlooks. Brian feels this is sustainable due to the large number of company's with positive earnings.

Bank Excess Reserves

Brian also has a play on BlackRock. Yesterday it was up nicely and the fundamentals looked great. He suggests selling a put to get long in the stock instead of simply buying the stock. The play is to sell the Jan. 120 put for $4.50, which is about a 3% yield vs. the value of the stock. Below 115.5 we are forced to get long in the stock and we are put to the stock at 120. You break even at 115.5 and above there is where you will make money.

Trade on BlackRock

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Is the KCJ Foreshadowing a 2008 Repeat?

The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower.  (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007).  So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...

The Week in Review

One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...