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Morning Update

This week market focus is likely to be on US earnings, with many large, widely held company’s reporting. Tomorrow Apple will report after the close in what will be one of the most closely watched and anticipated earnings report of the quarter. Google will be reporting today after the close. Option traders are currently pricing in a 5.5% move this week. On average GOOG has moved 5.8% over the last 2 years following earnings. The largest move was 13% and the largest downside move was 8%.

Friday morning Morgan Stanley released fourth quarter earnings that sent the stock soaring 7.9%. EPS came in at $0.45 versus $0.27 expected, and revenue increased 23% to $6.97 billion. The report and conference call were bullish from many standpoints, and encouraged option traders to step into long positions in the stock. One of the biggest trades of the day was the purchase of 29400 April 24 calls for $0.70 with the stock at 22.30. This is a bullish bet that MS will be above 24.70, 11% higher, at April expiration.

Morgan Stanley finally looks to be done cleaning house and can now focus on running its business as normal. CEO James Gorman has said that the dirty work is done, meaning that the layoffs are over. He is comfortable with the company as it now stands, at about 6,000 employees or 10% fewer than last year. The company’s profitability in the fourth quarter is not all due to cost cutting initiates though: pre-tax income from the wealth management has more than doubled since 2011 and net margins are up to 17% from 7% in the third quarter. The company’s institutional services division was also strong along with fixed-income and commodities sales and trading which was up year over year but down since the third quarter.

Going forward the big question investors have is can Morgan Stanley sustain its current momentum? The large buyer of out of the money calls on Friday would argue yes, and for good reason. Morgan Stanley has completed a series of difficult cost cutting initiates that it will now reap the benefits of. They have also shifted focus away from the risky, capital intensive, and highly regulated business of fixed-income trading towards wealth management. The company’s wealth management division shows the most promise for strong, stable future profits and high margins. CEO Gorman also said that the “overwhelming amount” of capital freed up from the transition away from sales and trading will be “returned to shareholders as soon as is practical.”

Buying out of the money calls on this stock is a good way to keep risk and outlay of capital to a minimum. The stock has nearly doubled in the last 6 months and could therefore see some volatility as investors take profits. Last week the stock broke through resistance at 21.20, the highs of 2012. The next level of resistance looks to be 24.50 which is a swing high from mid-2011.


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