Moments ago we saw a trader buy 51,504 XLV Nov. 42 calls for $0.07 with XLV at 40.40. This is a bullish bet that XLV, the SPDR Health Care Select Sector ETF, will be above 42.07 in 14 days, or 4.1% higher. We think this is actually a bet on the outcome of the election. An Obama victory is likely to benefit healthcare stocks while a Romney victory is likely to benefit the energy sector. Various polls show a wide range of election outcomes, with most showing Obama holding a narrow lead. At the office we like to watch markets like inTrade to see where people are betting their real money. The inTrade market for Obama to win currently implies that he has a 66.3% chance of winning. This trade is risking $360,528 and could potentially make many multiples of that, and shows how some of the smart money is beginning to position themselves for an Obama victory.
"I would like to bet ten tens on the tenth horse in the tenth
race, please."
Last summer, on a warm cloudy day June 11, 2016 in Elmont New York, a good friend of mine (Rob) confidently walked up to the cashier at Belmont and spoke those famous words. Ten Tens on Ten in the Tenth Race. In fact, it had been decided it months earlier. We had been discussing hosting his bachelor party in New York, go to the Belmont Stakes, and watch a Yankees vs Tigers game and Rob convinced the group to go to New York by proudly proclaimed his prophecy. I had almost forgotten about this bold prediction when I witnessed him at the register, but when I looked up, and saw Flintshire, the 10th horse in the race upcoming race was the favorite. “What could possibly go wrong?” I thought to myself (an options trader who bought a racing program attempting to handicap and gain an ‘edge’ in the previous nine races unsuccessfully). I went to a pretzel vendor and changed 5 twenties into ten tens, wal…
Last summer, on a warm cloudy day June 11, 2016 in Elmont New York, a good friend of mine (Rob) confidently walked up to the cashier at Belmont and spoke those famous words. Ten Tens on Ten in the Tenth Race. In fact, it had been decided it months earlier. We had been discussing hosting his bachelor party in New York, go to the Belmont Stakes, and watch a Yankees vs Tigers game and Rob convinced the group to go to New York by proudly proclaimed his prophecy. I had almost forgotten about this bold prediction when I witnessed him at the register, but when I looked up, and saw Flintshire, the 10th horse in the race upcoming race was the favorite. “What could possibly go wrong?” I thought to myself (an options trader who bought a racing program attempting to handicap and gain an ‘edge’ in the previous nine races unsuccessfully). I went to a pretzel vendor and changed 5 twenties into ten tens, wal…
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