Dan comments on the upward pressure on the VIX as the market moves through the third week of earnings. A full 35% of the S&P 500 components report earnings this week. The market has shown the ability to make measured strides higher over the past two months. Short term the VIX indicates that uncertainty in the market is contained, however looking at the term-structure of the VIX futures there is an indicatiion of increased volatility as we move into next year.
One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...
Comments