Dan talks about the reverse head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 index. On Monday, the market broke above the right shoulder which signals further upside. Recent M&A activities of IBM and other Tech names have helped this sector break to the upside as well. Dan remains cautiously optimistic. The technicals certainly look good, but Dan warns about a shift in expectations. He believes the market has priced in a Republican victory this fall. Any deviation to that could jeopardize the rally.
The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower. (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007). So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...
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