In the past two days of trading, the VIX has plunged to 64.70 and is down 20 percent since it's record high last Thursday. Clearly, The government bailout of Citigroup and President Elect Obama's announcement of the Chairman of the New York Fed Timothy Geithner to be the next Treasury Secretary has sparked this market rally. Unclear however, is how long all of this will last. The economy still has not healed from bad news in home sales, unemployment, and the bleak situation of financial institutions worldwide. In light of all this, are we starting to climb out of this financial abyss or was this just a bear market rally? Time will most certainly tell.
The CBOE Correlation Index (KCJ) is close to the lowest level we have seen since it was first listed in 2007. The KCJ measures the implied movement of the S&P 500 components options, compared to the implied movement of the S&P 500 index options. Simply put, the higher the number, the more likely all stocks are going to move together. Conversely, a low number will be characterized by sector rotation, and flat markets; one sector moves higher, another moves lower. (Source: Access Hollywood) Correlation, for lack of a better term, is correlated with volatility. Not surprisingly, 30-day S&P 500 historical volatility is near the low level of 6.5%. Currently at 33.5, KCJ is sitting close to rock bottom, lower than where it was in 2007, (but not lower than where Lindsay Lohan was in 2007). So far this year, the market has been able to grind higher, characterized by leadership in FANG(Facebook Apple/Amazon, Netflix, Google) and sector rotation. A...
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