For the first time since 2004, the Dow Industrial Average hit below 10,000 this morning. News around the world was not much better as the sum of all fears of a downward spiral in the credit crunch has spread globally. In Europe early Monday morning, banks continue to decline especially in Russia. Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, dropped as much as 22 percent. In South America, the Brazilian Stock Market hit a down limit shut off of 10%. In Us markets, many investors are worried not only over Friday's bailout plan specifically that it came a little too late, but also have a lack of trust in the economy. This fear was marked by the VIX level which was up 23% at 55.64 in mid morning trading. We have not seen these unprecedented numbers in the VIX since 1989. Historically, when the VIX has hit a level this high, it has marked a bottom such as in the 1989 level. However, many are speculating whether or not this is the case in this unpredictable market.
One of the questions I get most from clients is how to generate yield when the Fed is on hold with rates at zero. For a while many defensive clients were content receiving their 3% annual yield from Treasury bonds, but the Fed’s most recent meeting minutes shows that the Fed’s pace of bond buying may soon slow. While I do not think tapering is likely before year end (unless economic data accelerates significantly) the bond market is forward looking and already beginning to price tapering in. Smaller Fed purchases of Treasury bonds will mean that bond yields go up and bond prices go down. Bonds have been in a multi-year bull market, and we may now be on the cusp of a multi-year bear market. The most important indicator to watch is the 10-year yield, which cracked the 2.10% level this week for the first time in a year. If we continue to hold above 2.05% in June, the top is likely in for bonds and borrowing rates will be on the rise for everyone, including the US Treasury. So, how am ...
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